{"id":3407,"date":"2026-02-03T15:15:36","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T15:15:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/?p=3407"},"modified":"2026-02-03T15:15:36","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T15:15:36","slug":"copper-prices-crash-10-from-peak-but-fundamentals-point-to-long-term-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/?p=3407","title":{"rendered":"Copper prices crash 10% from peak, but fundamentals point to long-term rebound"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Copper prices crashed from their record high perch last week as Chinese bulls retreated from a turbulent commodity market. <\/p>\n

The cross-commodity selloff also pulled down copper prices, which are currently over 10% lower than the peak reached last week.<\/p>\n

Prices had topped a record $14,500 per ton on the London Metal Exchange last week, primarily driven by speculation and mine disruptions.  <\/p>\n

However, prices have recovered somewhat, and were 1% higher on Tuesday as investors resorted to buying from lower levels.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

At the time of writing, the three-month contract on LME was at $13,099 per ton, up 1.3% from the previous close.<\/p>\n

Fundamentals remain strong despite volatility<\/h2>\n

\u201cIts fundamentals still look supportive, driven by tight mine supply, constrained growth in key producers, and strong structural demand linked to electrification and AI-related data\u2011centre build-outs,\u201d Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Group, said in a note. <\/p>\n

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The recent price surge has also kept many industrial users on the sidelines, but lower prices should now draw physical buyers back into the market, helping to stabilise demand. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

While copper is currently experiencing near-term volatility due to broader macroeconomic uncertainty\u2014such as interest rate fears or global economic slowdown concerns\u2014the fundamental bullish case for the metal remains strong. <\/p>\n

The underlying narrative driving copper demand is anchored by the global energy transition, which requires vast amounts of the metal for electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and electric vehicles. <\/p>\n

Supply constraints, coupled with this secular demand growth, suggest that any current price weakness is temporary. <\/p>\n

Investors should view this dip not as a change in the long-term outlook but as a tactical buying opportunity. <\/p>\n

Once macro headwinds subside and market sentiment improves, this strong structural demand is expected to reassert itself, ultimately leading to renewed upward momentum in copper prices.<\/p>\n

Secular demand growth: energy transition and AI<\/h2>\n

\u201cEven though (Thursday\u2019s) sharp rise in the price of copper was probably a speculative exaggeration and has since been corrected, medium-term factors continue to point to a structural increase in the price of copper,\u201d Volkmar Baur, FX analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. <\/p>\n

As part of its forthcoming package of measures against Moscow, the European Union is currently contemplating sanctions. <\/p>\n

These proposed sanctions would include a ban on importing several Russian platinum-group metals and copper.<\/p>\n

Later this month, a proposal covering copper, platinum, rhodium, and iridium could be adopted, provided it receives unanimous approval from all member states.<\/p>\n

Russia’s largest miner, MMC Norilsk Nickel, would be the primary target of these measures. <\/p>\n

Until now, the company has avoided restrictions because of its critical role in global supply chains.<\/p>\n

Sanctions and anticipated market deficit<\/h2>\n

\u201cThe potential ban comes at a time when markets for these metals are already tight,\u201d Manthey added. <\/p>\n

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Copper\u2019s mine supply is constrained, while platinum is also expected to remain in deficit. This means any loss of Russian material would further tighten availability. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Despite the International Copper Study Group’s report last week predicting a copper surplus in 2025 (covering January through November), expectations are growing that this trend will reverse, perhaps permanently, starting in 2026. <\/p>\n

The copper market is now widely anticipated to enter a deficit as early as 2026, a structural imbalance that is likely to persist for several years.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn the one hand, this is driven by continuing growth in demand. Both the energy transition and artificial intelligence are driving up demand for copper,\u201d Commerzbank\u2019s Baur said. <\/p>\n

Global demand is projected to increase from roughly 26 million tons currently to 36 million tons over the next decade, a rise primarily driven by the ongoing energy transition, according to BNEF’s research unit.<\/p>\n

Conversely, the supply remains constrained. <\/p>\n

The rising demand is not being met due to a scarcity of new mining initiatives, coupled with the challenge of diminishing copper concentration in ores at operational mines.<\/p>\n

The post Copper prices crash 10% from peak, but fundamentals point to long-term rebound<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Copper prices crashed from their record high perch last week as Chinese bulls retreated from a turbulent commodity market. The cross-commodity selloff also pulled down copper prices, which are currently over 10% lower than the peak reached last week.Prices had topped a record $14,500 per ton on the London Metal Exchange last week, primarily driven by…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3407\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}