{"id":3632,"date":"2026-02-14T15:15:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-14T15:15:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/?p=3632"},"modified":"2026-02-14T15:15:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-14T15:15:32","slug":"cooling-inflation-and-steady-hiring-ignite-fresh-hopes-of-a-us-soft-landing-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/?p=3632","title":{"rendered":"Cooling inflation and steady hiring ignite fresh hopes of a US soft landing in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
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January delivered the kind of mix investors and policymakers have been looking for: inflation cooled even as the labor market kept adding jobs.<\/p>\n

The US consumer price index rose 0.2% in January<\/a> and was up 2.4% from a year earlier, while core inflation (which strips out food and energy) rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5% on the year.<\/p>\n

At the same time, payrolls grew by 130,000 and unemployment held near 4.3%<\/a>, keeping the \u201csoft landing\u201d narrative in play for 2026.<\/p>\n

What inflation numbers tell us<\/h2>\n

The headline CPI report offered clear relief on the surface.<\/p>\n

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said prices for all urban consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2% in January, and the 12-month rate eased to 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December.<\/p>\n

That was a touch softer than economists had expected, with a Dow Jones survey cited by CNBC looking for a 0.3% monthly rise and a 2.5% annual rate.\u200b<\/p>\n

Underneath, the report still showed some \u201csticky\u201d areas that matter for the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

Core CPI rose 0.3% in January and was up 2.5% over the past year, a reminder that underlying price pressures have not disappeared.<\/p>\n

Shelter prices rose 0.2% in January and were the largest contributor to the monthly increase in the overall index, according to the BLS.<\/p>\n

Over the past year, shelter was up 3.0%, which helps explain why core inflation can remain firm even when headline inflation cools.<\/p>\n

Energy helped pull the top-line number down.<\/p>\n

The BLS said the energy index fell 1.5% in January, with gasoline down 3.2% on the month (before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 2.5%).<\/p>\n

The food index rose 0.2% in January, with food at home also up 0.2% and food away from home up 0.1%.<\/p>\n

A few smaller categories also moved sharply. Airline fares rose 6.5% in January, while used cars and trucks fell 1.8%, and motor vehicle insurance slipped 0.4%, the BLS said.<\/p>\n

Taken together, the picture is consistent with disinflation continuing, but not in a perfectly smooth line, and that nuance is what keeps rate expectations sensitive to each new CPI print.\u200b<\/p>\n

How US jobs data fits the bigger picture<\/h2>\n

The labor market, meanwhile, looks steady rather than overheated.<\/p>\n

The BLS said total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate \u201cchanged little\u201d at 4.3%.<\/p>\n

Job gains were concentrated in health care (82,000), social assistance (42,000), and construction (33,000), while federal government employment fell by 34,000, and financial activities declined by 22,000.\u200b<\/p>\n

Wages are still rising at a pace that supports consumers, but not so fast that it automatically implies runaway inflation.<\/p>\n

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.4% in January to $37.17, and were up 3.7% over the past 12 months.<\/p>\n

The average workweek edged up to 34.3 hours in January, another sign that labor demand is holding together.\u200b<\/p>\n

Investors also had to digest revisions that temper any single-month read.<\/p>\n

The BLS revised November payroll growth down to 41,000 from 56,000, and December to 48,000 from 50,000, making the two months combined 17,000 lower than previously reported.<\/p>\n

More broadly, the annual benchmark process revised the March 2025 level of total nonfarm employment down by 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, and it cut 2025 job gains from 584,000 to 181,000.<\/p>\n

That kind of adjustment doesn\u2019t change the fact that hiring is continuing in 2026, but it does reinforce the idea that the labor market has cooled from its earlier post-pandemic pace.\u200b<\/p>\n

The soft landing narrative: How real is it?<\/h2>\n

A \u201csoft landing\u201d is the scenario where inflation comes down without the economy tipping into recession, slower price growth without a surge in unemployment.<\/p>\n

January\u2019s data fit that storyline better than many recent months: headline inflation eased, and job growth continued at a moderate clip.<\/p>\n

For the Fed, the combination argues for patience, not victory laps.<\/p>\n

The January CPI rose less than expected, while the underlying inflation remained firm as businesses raised prices at the start of the year.<\/p>\n

In markets, the immediate reaction was consistent with that read, with Treasury yields slipping after the slightly lighter CPI print.<\/p>\n

The risk case is still easy to sketch. If shelter and other service-heavy categories keep core inflation elevated, the Fed may feel less urgency to cut rates, even if headline inflation looks comfortable.<\/p>\n

And if hiring cools too quickly, especially after the benchmark revisions reminded investors how noisy the jobs data can be, the soft landing could start to look more like a slowdown.<\/p>\n

For now, January\u2019s cooler inflation and steady hiring give the soft-landing camp fresh evidence heading deeper into 2026, but the next few CPI prints and labor reports will matter more than any single \u201cgood\u201d month.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The post Cooling inflation and steady hiring ignite fresh hopes of a US soft landing in 2026<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

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January delivered the kind of mix investors and policymakers have been looking for: inflation cooled even as the labor market kept adding jobs.The US consumer price index rose 0.2% in January and was up 2.4% from a year earlier, while core inflation (which strips out food and energy) rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5%…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3633,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3632\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradertideinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}