Bitcoin Profit Cycle Turns Negative for First Time Since 2023: CryptoQuant

• Bitcoin’s profit cycle has turned negative for the first time since 2023.
• On-chain data shows more investors are realising losses than profits.

For the first time in more than two years, Bitcoin’s profit cycle has turned negative, according to on-chain data from analytics firm CryptoQuant. This change shows that, over the past 30 days, more Bitcoin holders have realised losses than gains — a shift not seen since October 2023.

The key measure behind this shift is the net realised profit and loss metric, which calculates the total gains or losses investors record when they move Bitcoin on the blockchain. When the metric is above zero, more coins are being spent at a profit. In recent weeks, it has dipped below zero, meaning a larger share of coins were sold at prices lower than their purchase cost.

On-chain Data Shows Decline in Realised Profits

According to CryptoQuant’s report, this period of negative profit coincided with roughly 69,000 BTC in net realised losses since late December. At recent price levels, that amount represents several billion dollars in realised losses across the market.

Another related indicator, annual net realised profits, has also declined. CryptoQuant data suggests annual realised profits are around 2.5 million BTC, down from about 4.4 million BTC a few months earlier. These levels are similar to those seen in early 2022, a period associated with the start of a previous market downturn.

A negative profit cycle does not automatically mean prices will fall further. Analysts point out that it reflects a shift in investor behaviour — namely, that some holders are choosing to sell at a loss rather than hold. Historically, such phases have appeared during periods when recent rallies failed to generate the same level of profit-taking as before.

At the current stage, this on-chain signal is best seen as a snapshot of market sentiment rather than a precise predictor of price direction.